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POLITICAL & ECONOMIC RISK CONSULTANCY LTD


Asian Risk Prospects -- 2009


The Table of Contents to the report is shown below.  The entire report is in pdf format and can be viewed on-screen for printing or saving in your own computer by clicking on the hypertext next to the Table of Contents.  Access to the full report is restricted to subscribers only, but the general public can view the Executive Summary of the report by clicking here . 

Table of Contents (Subscribers only can download the report in pdf formate by clicking here)

Executive Summary....................................................................................................... 1

A Graphic Summary of  Comparative Country Risks.............................................. 4

Explanation of Comparative Country Risk Model Structure................................ 6

1. Domestic Political Risks........................................................................................... 7

1a.      The risk of a change of government and key leaders in coming year................................................ 9

1b.      The risk of a disruptive political change............................................................................................... 13

1c.      Quality of the government's policies...................................................................................................... 17

1d.      Ineffectiveness of the government in implementing its policies...................................................... 22

2.  Social Instability Risks.......................................................................................... 26

2a.      Labor activism............................................................................................................................................. 29

2b.      Threat posed by social activism/unrest................................................................................................ 33

2c.      Extent that regionalism is a problem or threat..................................................................................... 39

3.  External Political Risks......................................................................................... 44

3a.      Direct military threats............................................................................................................................... 45

3b.      Vulnerability to fallout from socio-political instability in other countries................................... 51

3c.      Vulnerability to policy changes by governments in other countries............................................... 56

4.  Systemic Risks......................................................................................................... 62

4a.      Extent that corruption is a problem........................................................................................................ 63

4b.      Nationalism and cultural risks................................................................................................................ 70

4c.     Institutional weaknesses........................................................................................................................... 77

Appendix 1: Formula for Calculating the  Socio-Political Risk Index............. 84

Appendix 2: Comparison of 2007/8 Grades with  2008/9 Grades.................. 85

 



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