POLITICAL & ECONOMIC RISK CONSULTANCY LTD
Asian
Risk Prospects -- 2009
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Table
of Contents (Subscribers only can
download the report in pdf formate by clicking here)
Executive Summary....................................................................................................... 1
A Graphic Summary
of Comparative Country Risks.............................................. 4
Explanation of
Comparative Country Risk Model Structure................................ 6
1. Domestic Political Risks........................................................................................... 7
1a. The risk of a change of
government and key leaders in coming year................................................ 9
1b. The
risk of a disruptive political change............................................................................................... 13
1c. Quality of the government's
policies...................................................................................................... 17
1d. Ineffectiveness
of the government in implementing its policies...................................................... 22
2. Social Instability Risks.......................................................................................... 26
2a. Labor activism............................................................................................................................................. 29
2b. Threat posed by social
activism/unrest................................................................................................ 33
2c. Extent that regionalism is a
problem or threat..................................................................................... 39
3. External Political Risks......................................................................................... 44
3a. Direct military threats............................................................................................................................... 45
3b. Vulnerability to fallout from
socio-political instability in other countries................................... 51
3c. Vulnerability to policy changes
by governments in other countries............................................... 56
4. Systemic Risks......................................................................................................... 62
4a. Extent that corruption is a problem........................................................................................................ 63
4b. Nationalism and cultural risks................................................................................................................ 70
4c. Institutional weaknesses........................................................................................................................... 77
Appendix 1:
Formula for Calculating the
Socio-Political Risk Index............. 84
Appendix 2:
Comparison of 2007/8 Grades with 2008/9
Grades.................. 85